@Article{CSIAM-AM-1-186, author = {Chuansai and Zhou and chuansai@pku.edu.cn and 18360 and School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. and Chuansai Zhou and Wen and Yuan and yuanwen9510@pku.edu.cn and 18361 and Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China and Wen Yuan and Jun and Wang and jwwwang@pku.edu.cn and 18362 and Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China and Jun Wang and Haiyong and Xu and xuhaiyong@chinamobile.com and 18363 and China Mobile Information Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing, China and Haiyong Xu and Yong and Jiang and and 18364 and and Yong Jiang and Xinmin and Wang and and 18365 and and Xinmin Wang and Qiuzi and Han Wen and and 18368 and and Qiuzi Han Wen and Pingwen and Zhang and and 18367 and and Pingwen Zhang}, title = {Detecting Suspected Epidemic Cases Using Trajectory Big Data}, journal = {CSIAM Transactions on Applied Mathematics}, year = {2020}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {186--206}, abstract = {

Emerging infectious diseases are existential threats to human health and global stability. The recent outbreaks of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 have rapidly formed a global pandemic, causing hundreds of thousands of infections and huge economic loss. The WHO declares that more precise measures to track, detect and isolate infected people are among the most effective means to quickly contain the outbreak. Based on trajectory provided by the big data and the mean field theory, we establish an aggregated risk mean field that contains information of all risk-spreading particles by proposing a spatio-temporal model named HiRES risk map. It has dynamic fine spatial resolution and high computation efficiency enabling fast update. We then propose an objective individual epidemic risk scoring model named HiRES-p based on HiRES risk maps, and use it to develop statistical inference and machine learning methods for detecting suspected epidemic-infected individuals. We conduct numerical experiments by applying the proposed methods to study the early outbreak of COVID-19 in China. Results show that the HiRES risk map has strong ability in capturing global trend and local variability of the epidemic risk, thus can be applied to monitor epidemic risk at country, province, city and community levels, as well as at specific high-risk locations such as hospital and station. HiRES-p score seems to be an effective measurement of personal epidemic risk. The accuracy of both detecting methods are above 90% when the population infection rate is under 20%, which indicates great application potential in epidemic risk prevention and control practice.

}, issn = {2708-0579}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4208/csiam-am.2020-0006}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/csiam-am/16799.html} }