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Volume 14, Issue 3
Uncertainty Quantification of Store-Separation Simulation Due to Ejector Modeling Using a Monte Carlo Approach with Kriging Model

Shuling Tian, Rongjie Li, Jiawei Fu, Zihan Jiao & Jiangtao Chen

Adv. Appl. Math. Mech., 14 (2022), pp. 622-651.

Published online: 2022-02

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  • Abstract

Precise calculation of the trajectory of store separation is critical in assessing whether the store can be released safely. Store ejection is the initial stage of the releasing process and any uncertainty introduced at this stage will propagate through the whole trajectory. In this work, the impact of the uncertainties in ejector modeling on the simulation of a generic store separation is investigated by using a Monte-Carlo-based approach. To reduce the extremely large computation cost resulted from the direct use CFD in Monte Carlo simulation, the CFD solutions are represented by a time-dependent Kriging model, which is constructed at each time step by using the samples from the URANS simulations. The stochastic outputs, including the distribution of probability density function, expected value and 95% confidence interval of store separation trajectory, are obtained by the Monte Carlo simulations. The sensitivity analysis is also carried out by using the Monte-Carlo-based method to determine the most significant variables in ejector modeling, which affect the output uncertainty. Our results show that ejector modeling is one of the main uncertainty sources of store separation simulation and the approximation in ejector modeling can cause a significant deviation, especially in the angular displacement.

  • AMS Subject Headings

65E05, 76M12

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COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

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@Article{AAMM-14-622, author = {Tian , ShulingLi , RongjieFu , JiaweiJiao , Zihan and Chen , Jiangtao}, title = {Uncertainty Quantification of Store-Separation Simulation Due to Ejector Modeling Using a Monte Carlo Approach with Kriging Model}, journal = {Advances in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics}, year = {2022}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {622--651}, abstract = {

Precise calculation of the trajectory of store separation is critical in assessing whether the store can be released safely. Store ejection is the initial stage of the releasing process and any uncertainty introduced at this stage will propagate through the whole trajectory. In this work, the impact of the uncertainties in ejector modeling on the simulation of a generic store separation is investigated by using a Monte-Carlo-based approach. To reduce the extremely large computation cost resulted from the direct use CFD in Monte Carlo simulation, the CFD solutions are represented by a time-dependent Kriging model, which is constructed at each time step by using the samples from the URANS simulations. The stochastic outputs, including the distribution of probability density function, expected value and 95% confidence interval of store separation trajectory, are obtained by the Monte Carlo simulations. The sensitivity analysis is also carried out by using the Monte-Carlo-based method to determine the most significant variables in ejector modeling, which affect the output uncertainty. Our results show that ejector modeling is one of the main uncertainty sources of store separation simulation and the approximation in ejector modeling can cause a significant deviation, especially in the angular displacement.

}, issn = {2075-1354}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4208/aamm.OA-2020-0343}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/aamm/20278.html} }
TY - JOUR T1 - Uncertainty Quantification of Store-Separation Simulation Due to Ejector Modeling Using a Monte Carlo Approach with Kriging Model AU - Tian , Shuling AU - Li , Rongjie AU - Fu , Jiawei AU - Jiao , Zihan AU - Chen , Jiangtao JO - Advances in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics VL - 3 SP - 622 EP - 651 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/02 SN - 14 DO - http://doi.org/10.4208/aamm.OA-2020-0343 UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/aamm/20278.html KW - Uncertainty quantification, Monte Carlo simulation, Kriging surrogate model, store separation. AB -

Precise calculation of the trajectory of store separation is critical in assessing whether the store can be released safely. Store ejection is the initial stage of the releasing process and any uncertainty introduced at this stage will propagate through the whole trajectory. In this work, the impact of the uncertainties in ejector modeling on the simulation of a generic store separation is investigated by using a Monte-Carlo-based approach. To reduce the extremely large computation cost resulted from the direct use CFD in Monte Carlo simulation, the CFD solutions are represented by a time-dependent Kriging model, which is constructed at each time step by using the samples from the URANS simulations. The stochastic outputs, including the distribution of probability density function, expected value and 95% confidence interval of store separation trajectory, are obtained by the Monte Carlo simulations. The sensitivity analysis is also carried out by using the Monte-Carlo-based method to determine the most significant variables in ejector modeling, which affect the output uncertainty. Our results show that ejector modeling is one of the main uncertainty sources of store separation simulation and the approximation in ejector modeling can cause a significant deviation, especially in the angular displacement.

Shuling Tian, Rongjie Li, Jiawei Fu, Zihan Jiao & Jiangtao Chen. (2022). Uncertainty Quantification of Store-Separation Simulation Due to Ejector Modeling Using a Monte Carlo Approach with Kriging Model. Advances in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics. 14 (3). 622-651. doi:10.4208/aamm.OA-2020-0343
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